“在滿是數(shù)據(jù)和人口信息的世界，如果你不具備遠(yuǎn)見卓識，不會(huì)利用統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，不高瞻遠(yuǎn)矚，你的競爭對手將讓你無地自容。”（阿庫特拉.拉美西斯.阿頓諾西斯.西）(Akutra-Ramses Atenosis Cea)
2019年3月19日下午，國際茶葉委員會(huì)主席伊恩·吉布斯在“國際茶情趨勢和發(fā)展論壇”上作主旨發(fā)言
國際茶葉委員會(huì)（ITC）對產(chǎn)量、銷量、進(jìn)出口量等相關(guān)貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了核對，為從業(yè)人員和茶葉愛好者提供了寶貴的信息。ITC的數(shù)據(jù)信息來源于全球有60多個(gè)產(chǎn)茶國和超過195個(gè)飲茶國，這些信息對茶葉產(chǎn)量和營銷策略的發(fā)展大有助益。
全球的茶葉產(chǎn)量持續(xù)攀升——2018年，全球茶業(yè)年產(chǎn)量接近600萬公噸（5856414公噸），在20年內(nèi)翻了兩番，而2018年，全球茶產(chǎn)量增加了15.8萬噸。假設(shè)所有人每天飲茶量相同，那么大家平均每天都會(huì)喝上一小杯，即理論上可滿足全球約780克/人的需求。
2018年的國際總產(chǎn)量相較于去年增長了3%，在產(chǎn)量的提升上，中國和肯尼亞是主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力，兩國的茶葉產(chǎn)量分別增加了119588公噸（增幅5%）和53141公噸（增幅12%）。馬拉維也創(chuàng)造了2010年以來的第一份傲人成績，茶產(chǎn)量超過50000公噸，增幅11%（增加了5006公噸）?？夏醽喌牟枞~產(chǎn)量不僅破歷史最高記錄，相比2015年還增加了10萬公噸。而印度、斯里蘭卡、越南、印度尼西亞的產(chǎn)量則在2018年出現(xiàn)略微下滑。
2018年肯尼亞產(chǎn)量同比大幅上漲，但17年的產(chǎn)量之于前年減少了3.3萬噸，18年的產(chǎn)量僅比16年高出2萬噸（增幅4%）。在2010年肯尼亞創(chuàng)造了399006的量產(chǎn)高峰之后有5個(gè)年份（2013、2014、2016、2017、2018）的產(chǎn)量超過了40萬噸，十年來的平均年產(chǎn)量達(dá)到41萬噸。種植計(jì)劃的開展推動(dòng)了產(chǎn)量攀升，2008-2017年期間，肯尼亞的茶田種植面積擴(kuò)張了將近50%。
肯尼亞是世界上最大的茶葉出口國，所以此處重點(diǎn)提及了該國的產(chǎn)茶情況。2018年，國際茶葉出口量增加了3.5%，這是自2013年來達(dá)到的最高漲幅；國際總出口量在總產(chǎn)量中的占比較低，僅占31.6%（2017年占比31.4%，2016年占比32.3%，2013年占比37.2%）。中國的茶葉出口增量略高于產(chǎn)量增量；俄羅斯、英國、北美、非洲的進(jìn)口量全部下滑；一些獨(dú)聯(lián)體國家、其他歐洲國家、拉丁美洲和大洋洲的進(jìn)口量微增，引人注目；亞洲和茶葉主產(chǎn)區(qū)的進(jìn)口增量最大，2018年合計(jì)增量36000公噸。
拉丁美洲、非洲和歐洲大陸國家也渴望進(jìn)軍茶葉市場。法國及意大利的茶葉進(jìn)口量呈緩慢增長狀態(tài)。兩國是傳統(tǒng)的咖啡國，茶葉進(jìn)口量的增長表明，傳統(tǒng)飲茶國以外還大有市場。
茶飲也面臨著巨大挑戰(zhàn)，要與咖啡、可可、軟飲、水和廣受歡迎的花草茶、加味飲品、甚至是酒精競爭份額。單在墨西哥，非酒精飲料就包括玉米汁（atole）、香蒲瑞多（champurrado）、泉凈水（aguas frescas）、神之飲（tejate）等等。墨西哥的茶進(jìn)口量10年內(nèi)翻了4倍（2018年增幅近10%），年均銷量從1杯/人增加至4杯/人。但要同前文提及的全球年均銷量比（365杯/人），墨西哥還相差甚遠(yuǎn)。
為使產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈里的工作人員、尤其是生產(chǎn)上游的工作人員勞有所得，人們在進(jìn)行茶葉貿(mào)易時(shí)都盡力抬高售價(jià)。非洲產(chǎn)量不斷上漲，不可避免地導(dǎo)致其產(chǎn)品在蒙巴薩和林貝拍賣會(huì)上競為低價(jià)。2018年交易價(jià)格有所下跌，許多生產(chǎn)商的競價(jià)僅在0.5美元/公斤到1美元/公斤之間，低于2017年的價(jià)格。降價(jià)原因主要取決于品質(zhì)和產(chǎn)地，價(jià)格的低迷狀態(tài)波及各地，許多國家都承受了20%-50%的價(jià)格降幅。銷售商及生產(chǎn)商圍繞在馬拉維推出的2020年計(jì)劃展開討論，擬研究出一款能賣個(gè)好價(jià)的產(chǎn)品配方。由于2018年非洲的茶葉價(jià)格走低，人們對于研發(fā)解決方案的愿望也更佳迫切。
2018年印度的產(chǎn)茶量接近2017年水平，總體價(jià)格也與去年持平；但其在科倫坡拍賣所的產(chǎn)量實(shí)際略微下滑，整體價(jià)格低于2017年均價(jià)。
茶已經(jīng)滲透進(jìn)了中國的文化，其中特色茶的根基穩(wěn)固，從業(yè)者也能獲得豐厚的回報(bào)。西方國家對原產(chǎn)特色茶的需求不斷增加，愿意花高價(jià)享受好手藝、高質(zhì)量的茶，也越發(fā)有消費(fèi)者追尋茶盞背后的故事。
供求向來決定價(jià)格。許多人提倡減少供給、提高價(jià)格；也有相當(dāng)部分人認(rèn)為應(yīng)該把重點(diǎn)放在解決產(chǎn)量過剩的問題上，我將在另一篇文章里圍繞這些問題展開詳述。
本文對2018年的全球茶市場概況進(jìn)行了簡述，文中言論僅代表個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)。國際茶葉委員會(huì)在統(tǒng)計(jì)年報(bào)和網(wǎng)站上定期更新的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和周密分析，給人們帶來了世界茶行趨勢和發(fā)展機(jī)會(huì)的寶貴信息。無論是生產(chǎn)商還是營銷商，這些戰(zhàn)略家、甚至行業(yè)興趣者都將其視為偉大飲品行業(yè)中一筆重要的財(cái)富。
愛德華.塔夫特（美國統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家、耶魯大學(xué)政治、統(tǒng)計(jì)、計(jì)算機(jī)學(xué)榮譽(yù)教授）曾說過，“如果你覺得數(shù)據(jù)索然無味，那一定是統(tǒng)計(jì)錯(cuò)了。”國際茶葉委員會(huì)《統(tǒng)計(jì)年報(bào)》中的數(shù)據(jù)則一定是統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)里的連城之璧！絕不要錯(cuò)過。
THE INTERNATIONAL TEA MARKET
“In a world with amazing amounts of statistics and demographics available, if you don't utilize foresight, statistics, demographics, projections and predictions the competition will.”(Akutra-Ramses Atenosis Cea)
The International Tea Committee collates the statistics of the tea trade – the production, consumption, exports, imports etc. providing valuable information for everyone working in and interested in the trade. With over sixty countries producing tea, and people in over 195 countries drinking it the statistics collated by the ITC from across the world provide plenty of useful information to help to develop both production and marketing strategies.
World tea production continues to grow - in 2018 it grew by over 158,000 MT. It has doubled in twenty years. The 2018 annual production of almost six million metric tons (5,856,414 MT) means that in theory there are approximately 780 grams available for each person in the world – assuming everyone drinks the same quantity – one weak cup of tea per day!
The 2018 figure represents close to a 3% increase on 2017 production and can mainly be attributed to China and Kenya where crops increased by 119,588 MT (5%) and 53,141 MT (12%) respectively. Malawi also recorded a significant increase in production, up 11% (5,006 MT) producing over 50,000 MT - the first time since 2010. Kenya’s figure is particularly significant as it is not only their highest crop ever but it represents an increase of almost 100,000 MT on 2015’s production. India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Indonesia, however, all recorded slightly reduced crop figures in 2018.
Although Kenya saw a significant increase on last year’s production it is important to note that production in 2017 was 33,000 MT down on 2016. Production in 2018 was therefore only 20,000 MT (4%) higher than that of 2016. Since 2010 when crop reached a high of 399,006 the Kenya crop figure has only been above 400,000 on five occasions (2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018) - the average production over the last ten years being 414,331 MT. This growth has been driven to a major degree by the planting programmes which have resulted in the area under tea in Kenya expanding by nearly 50% between 2008 and 2017.
I have highlighted Kenya because they are the largest exporter of tea. In 2018 world exports of tea rose by about 3.5% the largest increase since 2013 but total world exports remain low at only 31.6% of total production (2017 – 31.4%; 2016 32.3%; 2013 – 37.2%). China’s exports increased by less than 10% of its increase in production. Imports into Russia, UK, North America, and Africa all fell. Small growth was evident in the other CIS countries, the rest of Europe, Latin America, and Oceania, while the largest increase in imports was in Asia and major Producing Counties who together imported an additional 36,000 MT in 2018.
Latin America, Africa and the continent of Europe are exciting if challenging markets for tea. Imports to both France and Italy are rising slowly. The progress being made by tea in these two countries, traditional coffee countries, confirms that there are very real opportunities outside the established tea drinking countries.
Tea faces huge competition for share of throat - from coffee, cocoa, soft drinks, water, all the increasingly popular herbal and flavoured infusions, as well as the alcoholic options. In Mexico you can add to this a long list of other non-alcoholic drinks including atole, champurrado, aguas frescas and tejate to name but a few. But in Mexico tea imports for consumption have quadrupled in ten years (rising nearly 10% in 2018) – average consumption has gone up from one cup per head per year to four cups, still a long way behind the 365 cups per head average for the world as mentioned above.
In the tea trade we are all fighting to get higher prices so that everyone working across the trade, especially those working at the production end, will be better remunerated. The increase in production in Africa inevitably resulted in lower prices at Mombasa and Limbe auctions. Prices fell in 2018 with many producers receiving 0.50 US$ to 1 US$ less per kg than they earned in 2017. Falls between 20 – 50%, depending on quality and origin were widespread. In Malawi discussions are ongoing between buyers and producers over the Malawi 2020 programme to develop a formula that will result in better prices and with 2018 seeing lower prices across Africa there is perhaps greater urgency to find a solution.
In India where crop levels remained close to 2017 levels, prices generally held. In Colombo on the other hand where crop levels actually fell slightly, prices were on average consistently lower than they were in 2017.
In China, tea is embedded in your culture and as a result the speciality end is firmly established and so producers are well rewarded. In the west demand for Speciality teas from many origins is growing and for these teas people are willing to pay fair prices to the producers for their skills, the quality of tea and, increasingly, the story.
Price will inevitably be determined by supply and demand and while there are many who advocate reductions in supply in order to raise prices there are equally persuasive arguments for more emphasis to be placed on increasing demand, a debate which needs to be discussed in detail in a separate essay.
This article hopefully gives a brief overview of the World Tea Market in 2018. The views expressed are my own but close analysis of the figures collated by the ITC and published in their Annual Bulletin of Statistics, and updated regularly on their web site, gives subscribers an invaluable insight into trends and opportunities across the world – a vital tool for any serious strategist whether he/she be a producer or marketer or simply an interested consumer of our great beverage!!!
Edward Tufte (an American statistician and professor emeritus of political science, statistics, and computer science at Yale University) once said: “If the statistics are boring, then you've got the wrong numbers.” The statistics in the International Tea Committee’s “Annual Bulletin of Statistics” are never boring!!! Don’t miss out.
